The Rubicon is a small, almost non-descript river that meanders in the northern reaches of Italy for about fifty miles, before entering the Adriatic Sea. It is of little note to anyone these days, other than those who choose to fish along its banks, or choose to paddle in its calm, muddied waters.
However, two millennia ago this river had huge political significance and gave rise to an expression still used today. Julius Caesar, perhaps the most famous of Roman military leaders was the conqueror of the Gallic heartlands resulting in the senate of ancient Rome cast envious eyes over the popularity that Caesar, Crassus and Pompey had amongst the plebeians (yes, plebs, it is where the commonly used derogatory term for the common classes is derived from).
Politicking is nothing new and this triumvirate of military heroes was simply too much. It was no coincidence that after the death of Crassus, Pompey was installed as the ‘Protector of Rome’, a sole consul. A law of the imperium at that time was that no governor, and Caesar now was just that, could bring an army with him onto Roman territory. To do so would be deemed an act of war. Pompey, through the Roman senate, had summonsed Caesar to Rome. Caesar was suspicious fearing a trap being set for him. He refused the summons after which Pompey termed him a traitor. The stage was now set.
Caesar with his famous thirteenth legion camped on the banks of the Rubicon one night in 49BC. Suetonius, a Roman historian claimed that the next dawn, the immortal words ‘Alea Iacta Est’ were uttered as Caesar, replete with his legion, crossed the river. Those words have a very literal meaning, though there is argument as to whether they mean ‘The die is cast’ or ‘Let the die be cast’. Regardless of lexicographer’s arguments, this utterance was made in the knowledge that this symbolic act of defiance would lead to a civil war. In that moment, Julius Caesar passed a point of no return, he crossed the Rubicon, and today, over two thousand years later, if someone is said to have ‘Crossed the Rubicon’ it signifies that there is very likely to be trouble ahead. Two weeks ago, The UK Government did just that. They bombed Syria.
The world was outraged by the terrorist atrocities in Paris, naturally, and no nation more so than France itself. I have covered this before in another article so will simply state what was to follow and offer my humble opinion as to what will be, for it will and soon. France had to react, this was a formulaic and expected response, the public demand for action was too high to ignore. The sense of retribution was tangible but the reality was that the attacks that France launched achieved nothing of any real note. Such is the hyperbole that fills the vacuum of rational debate at such times, it was only a matter of time before news bulletins contained the latest images that we are becoming desensitised to, with payloads of conventional munitions making craters in the desert sands of Syria, adopted homeland of ISIS. We would have done the same in their situation. Wouldn’t we?
Possibly, but it matters little, an entirely moot point. The fact is that we did not react immediately in support of France. We couldn’t. Whatever the flawed argument applied by some that this was an attack by an enemy against a fellow NATO member state, it wasn’t an act committed by a recognised country. Who should be attacked then? With what force and rather more importantly, for what purpose? You see, there is a very common myth being spread around that people seem only too willing to take hold of and accept as fact. Syria is not ISIS, no matter how many times the media would like you to swallow that soundbite. Syria is Syria and was torn apart by civil war long before France dropped their first bomb. ISIS is an ideology. In the same manner that a Thai teenager can be as passionate about Manchester United as a Salford youth, so the seeds that ISIS are sowing could settle anywhere where there is a mind weak enough to allow it that seed to germinate.
We are told that we are now bombing targets of tactical and strategic importance and we think that this will have an effect. It surely will, but not the one that we all hope for. My next statement will seem incredibly flippant but it is really not meant to be. How much practice do you think a suicide bomber has prior to blowing themselves up? The method is very simple after all. Strap a load of explosives around you, that someone else provides, and either wait for the timer to tick down to zero or detonate yourself by pressing a button. In some instances there is even evidence that these devices are detonated remotely by a sleeper, someone who just presses a button and walks off into the sunset.
There are no camps in Syria that are producing suicide bombers, use your logic and follow it to its conclusion and it is absolutely churlish to ever imagine there could be. Kamikaze pilots in the Second World War knew how to fly a fighter aircraft, but their practice sessions of actually flying their airframe into a dummy or practice ship didn’t happen did they? Syria has camps in the desert that are teaching ISIS members to fight against President Assad or whoever else they choose, but these are actual training camps where firearms are used, tactics taught and acts of war planned. We may make an impact on the day to day fighting in the ongoing struggle within Syria itself, but in preventing future acts of terrorism, we are exacerbating the problem, not diminishing any future threat.
There is far more going on behind the scenes than any conspiracy theorist would even dare to imagine. Russia are not involved for altruistic purposes I assure you. This is the same country that invaded Ukraine two years ago, the same Russia that dropped fuel air explosives in the Argun Gorge in Chechnya and the same Russia that are governed by an narcissist of the highest order. People were praising Putin in the immediate aftermath of November 13th, but in hindsight perhaps those glances of admiration and applause should have been casting a doubtful eye and clasping their hands in prayer. Mr Putin, the loveable scamp that he is, is still refusing to accept any apology from Turkey for bringing down a Russian airliner recently. Was he so forthcoming in apologising to those nations who lost loved ones when his troops downed an airliner over the Ukraine so very recently?
You see, the opportunities for live combat operations are very rare these days, so those vital combat sorties being flown right now strike a chord of discontent inside me as opposed to a need to pat the back of a madman. Ukraine Is not finished with yet, and if I was a former Soviet state right now, I would be very concerned indeed. There is a presidential election coming up in the United States, and the tacit approval of Donald Trump by Putin is not comical, it is telling. I will come to Mr Trump shortly. Putin is a megalomaniac, a man for whom we should hold nothing but contempt. To champion him as a leader of the free world is total idiocy.
As for ISIS, for that is the real problem right here and right now, we are giving them far more credit as an organisation than they deserve. We are also arming them with our lust for blood in the wake of their cowardly attacks. Every bomb that is dropped by us is seen as a success for their warped agenda. It fuels their hatred for us and more worrying than that is used as a propaganda tool for radicalising a whole new generation. Those that become radicalised are not found in Syria, they are found in Basingstoke, Barry and Berwick. They are found in Boston, Indiana and San Francisco. They will be found anywhere with a wifi signal and an ethnic minority. Think I am mad? When passion rules you, then reason must hold the reigns. In the last few years over a million people have died. The world remained largely indifferent to the scores of boats leaving Africa and heading to mainland Europe. Throw up an image of a dead toddler on a beach and the world sat up and took note. That is the power of propaganda.
I’ll ask you to do something strange here, and you may not be able to do it. The majority of people who read this will be white, possibly Christian in their beliefs and last stepped foot inside their church they day they got married or had a funeral to attend. I want you to imagine if you can, being a disenchanted child in their mid-teens or early adolescence from an ethnic background different to the one which you call home, but rather than the usual angst of pubescent dreams and feelings the world is against you, a genuine belief that it actually is. The western world they live in is calling for the death of Muslims the world over. Of course not all Muslims but then I would be wary of anyone who claimed me as a friend whilst whooping and hollering for bombs to be dropped on countries and peoples who I shared a faith and cultural ties with.
Now, because of the events from Paris so recently, and Sousse and other places that the world claims to care about but can’t even spell correctly, you are aware that the looks you now receive have not just apathy about them but maybe a sense of trepidation, fear, possibly even hatred. You become more isolated and turn to those in whom you trust, your elders, you religious leaders. They show you the same picture of a dead toddler but rather than being on a beach like a macabre piece of jetsam, this child is pictured in the remains of a school that was supposedly bombed by UK or US or French jets from 30,000 feet. Indiscriminately killed for no other reason than being the wrong colour, at the wrong time in the wrong place. In your eyes, eyes that have yet to gain the wisdom of independent thought and reason, this is truly a crime against your own. You see, it is very easy to radicalise anyone, providing the mind is still able to be controlled, even to a degree. You suddenly start to see fault in everything. They say a man with nothing to die for has nothing to live for. They may only be words but used in the right context with the right audience and you suddenly have a jihadist created. Not in Syria though.
The UK crossed the Rubicon the day we, once again, bowed to international pressure. Many of you will assert, and with just cause that you did not want this action. The fact is though that the clamour for retribution was too loud amongst the corridors of Whitehall and amongst the ambassadorial lunches that we were not privy to. We are allied to the French, we are brothers in arms. The reality again though is somewhat different. The last time UK soil was invaded, during the Falklands conflict, no support was forthcoming from our allies. Indeed, should we choose to be pedantic, it was French weaponry that was responsible for the death of so many. It was never sold to our enemy for use against us, but that is the problem when international borders and diplomatic posturing play second fiddle to the huge financial gains that are made from arms deal. Proliferation of arms is nothing new, and with today’s allies all too often becoming tomorrows enemies then there is an air of inevitably that one day your own countrymen fall to bullets fired from guns made twenty miles from your own front door. Only the most delusional of free thinkers could allow themselves to believe that love makes the world go around, it is money. It was always this way, it will always be this way.
Even in this country, where we are not subject to propaganda (if you believe that you are a fool), there is descent amongst the ranks. People are prepared to argue over the most ridiculous of things. There are many who are all too happy to blame David Cameron for this. What a pathetic notion. Truly it is. Let’s get a complete reality check here, government voted for action, and if Labour had wanted to oppose the idea then they would have. Likewise ten years previously when we fought Iraq an Afghanistan Tory bowed to Labour. You see, 78 per cent of the elected house are millionaires. How many people do you know amongst your circle of friends are millionaires? Eight out of ten? Of course not. Our democratically elected house represent themselves in most instances, not you or I.
Hillary Benn is being lauded for his impassioned speech from the opposition benches, imploring the government to act and use lethal force. Staunch labour supporters are heralding him as a future leader, a man of action, of principle. Will you remember him in that light when the house votes for the introduction of ground troops to battle ISIS strongholds two thousand miles away, when the very real threat is in the very next street? The maxim that you cannot win a war without air superiority is absolutely right, but you cannot hope to end one without the introduction of ground troops.
Have you seen a man die, not in the embrace of old age and loved ones in a comfortable bed, but rather as a result of the huge trauma caused by an IED? Have you seen the fear in a young man’s eyes when bullets fill the air like mosquitoes at a summer barbeque? No? Then don’t ask for these boys to fight a battle that is futile and meaningless. The battles that must be fought are in the classrooms and within our own minds. We must not ever give up the idea that peace will be wrought not from death but from understanding and compassion. It is the only way.
We like to place credence in the notion that we must rid ourselves of our enemy but sometimes this is the very worst thing we can do. I am a fan of quotes, and Mario Puzo penned a great one in his book The Godfather. Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. What we are doing now is trying to chase away bogeymen on a different continent whilst inadvertently helping to create Frankenstein in mosques the length and breadth of the country. Am I being too liberal; no, I’m not. What I am doing is applying that same old logic that served me well in sixteen years as an intelligence analyst.
A case in point. Abu Hamza, the crook with a hook. A monster. Perhaps he is, he is certainly a preacher of hate. The thing is though, apply logic and you see things in an entirely different light. He was the Imam at Finsbury Park mosque, an advocate for militant Islam and known to radicalise Muslim youths. That wasn’t why the public hated him though, they hated him because that bloody awful rag, The Sun, told us all how much money he was creaming off the state in benefits. He is now serving a life sentence in the United States with no chance of parole. Just? Yes, of course, but also a problem. It was easy to track the hooked villain, the archetypal monster. We knew where he was at every moment of every day. We knew who he talked to, we would probably have tracked every e-mail and phone call he made. He was intelligence gold. The gift that kept giving. Without him there has been no decrease in terrorist activity. There has been no sudden decrease in the radicalisation of the youth. In fact, if anything the problem has grown worse.
Do not mistake my observations as a defence of the man himself. He was, and is, a despicable human being but sometimes the safest place to keep a wild animal is in plain view, where he can be observed. What we have now are Abu Hamza’s that we can’t track until it is too late. The intelligence battle is one that is never common knowledge, nor should it ever be, and it is one as I have said many times before it is not infallible.
I talked of Donald Trump earlier. This man is a caricature that has been gifted life, a modern day Pinocchio. I don’t want to demonise him for the sake of it but his very existence as a future presidential candidate is truly the stuff of nightmares. Such is the nature of US politics however there is a chance this imbecile could become the most powerful man in the world. He has since doctored comments and claimed his words were taken out of context but the basis of his ill-advised speech was that all Muslims should be banned from the USA. Think about that?
He was immediately compared to a young Adolf Hitler, prior to his seizing of power and the invasion of Poland. On first glance this seems like a preposterous statement but there will be more terrorist attacks, and they will serve only to add support to the toupee wearing fantasist. Money talks as we have already discussed and this man is wealthy enough to realise his dreams. Should this happen and it is doubtful, but possible, then the world could be shaken like never before. Idiocy and power are all too common a coupling within the world of politics but in this instance it is not exaggeration to state that the world’s most powerful man could also be one of the most stupid and pig ignorant.
If you isolate a group of people as a whole, regardless of any other mitigating circumstances other than the God they choose to worship, the reverberations will be felt for a century. This is not dramatic licence being taken, rather a logical appraisal of the situation at hand. Whereas the number of people who are susceptible to the brainwashing and radicalisation are proportionately minute, this means of population censorship will multiply the ratios beyond any control. It will alienate the Arab states that are pro-Western in their political leanings. It will see the constant fear of terrorist atrocities replaced by a constant state of mourning as those fears are realised.
So why does this affect us here in the UK? Because we are a small nation. We are a proud one yes, but not a major force in world affairs anymore. We hang onto coattails and sit as a parrot on the shoulders of the true global powers. We are not rulers of a vast empire, we are a nation state that ranks behind both France and Germany in terms of financial clout and military might within our own continent. We support these nations along with our transatlantic cousins for one simple reason, we must. Independently we are a spent force. Our military strength was once mighty indeed and those who serve today are amongst the very best in the world, I have the wealth of experience both home and abroad to vouch for that but we are too small. Successive governments have eroded our forces to such a degree that to even term our Army as such is a misnomer. It is a defence force, not an army. This is of course an irrelevance for when the bombs start to explode on British soil, and that is a formality now, then there is little an army numbering in the millions could accomplish.
So blinded have we become by media hype, so unaware of the realities in which we are dealing, that there is an air of complacency and arrogance that we will be ok. We will not be ok. With each bomb dropped on foreign lands that serve no purpose either tactically or strategically, there is a new threat created far closer to home. The terror cells are here in the UK, they have been for more years than you dare imagine and it is only a matter of time before they act. They are biding their time, until they can have the most impact, but it will happen, you can be certain of it.
We beseech the government to make us safe in our homes but they can’t do that. Not now. Human rights acts and bleeding hearts do not want their e-mails accessed by people who have no desire to know if someone living at number 32 is sleeping with the woman at number 25 Rowntree Avenue. They care little if your predilection for pornography is something you would rather keep private. They are looking for a real and present threat of terrorism. It is a Luddite attitude toward electronic surveillance that will prove so costly in the coming months, for this is how modern day terrorism is orchestrated. How many times have you seen a teacher post on Facebook about the desire to express upon her class the speed with which information can travel from one side of the world to the other?
There is little we can do to defend innocence from men who espouse such reckless hate and enmity but we must be prepared, we must not let the lessons from yore turn into a memorial for future generations to grieve behind. I will never give up on the ideal that education is the only way forward. An open hand carries more weight than a clenched fist. We must teach our children that the love of life itself is the most powerful thing in the world, that even on the darkest of days which may come, there is still room for light and for reason. It is not right to hate, we are not born that way, only taught that way. Islam and Christianity can live peacefully together, of that there is no doubt for this country, the one that Donald Trump holds in such contempt for our Muslim ‘problem’ has shown that it can be done. We can live together in a multi-cultural society and rather than look at each other with fear, we can look at each other with respect.
So yes, we have crossed the Rubicon. We have reached a point from which there can now be no return but perhaps, just maybe, with a little understanding it may serve as the one thing the terrorists don’t want. It could well serve as the calling to unite this country again, white, brown and black, Muslim, Jew and Christian, even Jack and Bluebird. Obviously the last will never happen.
I know one thing…. My good friend whose daughter plays football with mine, well he prays five times a day and faces in the same direction, I pray only when I step on the scales. We are friends. We always will be. ISIS do not kill in his name, and the bombs being dropped on Syria are not killing in mine. We bknow that. So does the hugely overwhelming majority of people. Never lose sight of that. Do not allow one event to turn that open hand of friendship into the clenched fist of hate. In the last two weeks the word ‘believe’ has taken on an entirely new connotation and I ask you all to believe that the calm will arrive, but only if we have the fortitude and strength to ride out the storm that although once on a far distant horizon, now threatens to break upon us.
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